Japanese Economic Growth
Japanese Economic GrowthJapanese were encouraged by the outcome of the most recent U.S. - China summit in October. Although uncertainties remain, and there are serious differences of views and positions between the U.S. and China, it was encouraging to see that the two principal actors on the Asia-Pacific scene seem to be more willing to cooperate rather than confront. In my view, this is only a part of the broader process in which the U.S., Japan and China are currently engaged, with the basic question being: How can the U.S. and Japan shape triangular relationships with China in ways that are consistent with our common interests in Asia and the Pacific? Or to put it another way, how are we to convince China that the political and economic orders we wish to build in the Asia-Pacific region are consistent with China’s own interests and, therefore, worth supporting?
While I am not a China expert, I think that China today is beset by three major problems that shape Chinese perceptions, and these, in turn, determine to a great extent China’s behavior on the international scene. The first is China’s self-image as a poor, weak and vulnerable country, which stems from its historical legacy. The second relates to the inherent tensions in China’s fragile political system. The third is the long-pending question of unification with Taiwan, which is becoming increasingly elusive.
As long as China is unable to find solutions to these three problems, it will view the so-called unipolar world under American hegemony as inimical to its own interests. This scenario worries Japan and other countries in Asia as any political or economic order which excludes China is bound to be very fragile and unstable.
It is imperative for the U.S. and Japan to understand that China’s perceptions of the world and the place it occupies in the world order are quite different from the way we see them, and that these perceptions create in the minds of the Chinese leadership a deep sense of insecurity. Our respective China policies must start by recognizing that this sense of insecurity is not an entirely groundless obsession.
In spite of its tremendous growth over the past twenty years, China is still a poor country which has to cope with centrifugal forces arising from ethnic problems in its border regions. In order to maintain its territorial integrity, the responsibility from which no government can escape, China must cope with these centrifugal forces. We must also remember that it has been less than 50 years since China was liberated from foreign colonialism and aggression, conditions which it suffered since the 19th century. In fact, Hong Kong was returned to China only four months ago.
Let me now say a few words about the tensions in China’s political system. The Chinese leadership is committed to economic modernization. This means moving more and more towards economic pluralism. China’s leadership knows that this is the only way to build a strong,...
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