Nuclear proliferation
Nuclear proliferationWhat is the status of the international nonproliferation of nuclear weapons?
Outline Title
I. Introduction
A. “Floating Chernobyl”
B. Something to think about
II. Statistics
A. Russia’s nuclear arsenal
B. US’ nuclear arsenal
III. Treaties
A. START I
B. START II
C. START III
IV. THREATS
A. New Power Landscape
B. Broken Command
C. Broken Army
V. Status of Other Countries
A. Iraq
B. North Korea
C. Iran
D. Libya
E. Cuba
F. Pakistan
G. India
VI. Conclusion
What is the status of the international nonproliferation of nuclear weapons?
One day on a cold, bleak Russian night a world disaster was
almost destined to happen. Alexander Kuzminykh, a 19-year old
teenager, was aboard the submarine the Vepr when he attacked the
sentry and killed him with a chisel. Panicking he grabbed the guard’s
AK-47 and killed seven more crew members on the way to the torpedo
bay where he locked himself in. This suicidal teenager the stayed in
the bay for twenty hours threatening to blow it up and potentially
causing a “Floating Chernobyl”(Paddock-thestar.com). He talked to
his mother and then he just killed himself. When scientists and nuclear
activists got a hold of this story “it sent shivers through their spine”
(Paddock-thestar.com). This was because one day they know that one
suicidal teenager will actually have the guts to just blow himself up
with all those nuclear warheads. Russian officials were quick to say
,“the submarine and the people (in the vicinity) were safe.” A former
Russian navy captain said, “ It is really scary that one day the use of
nuclear arms may depend on the sentiments of someone who is feeling
blue, who has gotten out of bed on the wrong side and does not feel
like living” (Paddock-thestar.com).
Horror stories among Russian officials have been told. They
say that there are “Nuclear-submarine reactor cores that sit unguarded
in warehouses at the Vladivostok naval base, a research institute
outside Moscow that can’t afford to dispose of Cobalt-60 reactor-fuel
rods; and scientists say the rods pose the threat of another Chernobyl.
And when workers at a ship yard near Murmansk stole 4.5 kilograms of
partially enriched uranium, the investigating police official said the
theft ‘was easier than taking a sack of potatoes’”(Wouters-abc.com).
In July 1994, Turkish Police in Istanbul seized 22 pounds of uranium
smuggled out of Azerbaijan. In August 1994, a Lufthansa flight from
Moscow landed in Munich carrying a lead-lined suitcase filled with
350 grams of plutonium that the smugglers had planned to sell for
$70,000 a gram. In December 1994, Czech police found an astonishing
3 kilograms of highly enriched, weapons-grade uranium in the back
seat of a parked car in Prague. To think about something just think that
it only takes 10 kilograms of highly enriched uranium to build a bomb
with the firepower of the “Little Boy”. “Little Boy” , by the way, killed
75,000 people in Hiroshima back in World War II. If someone was to
unleash three to five kilograms of plutonium out in the open in
Manhattan, it wouldn’t kill many people, but it would severely
contaminate a huge area of Manhattan making thousands of people to
move and bring the world’s financial center to a halt.
In these following paragraphs I am going to throw you a bunch
of numbers, but these numbers can’t be confirmed because we don’t
know exactly how many weapons Russia or the United States has
because either one can be secretly stockpiling nuclear weapons without
the public or the other nations having clue. Russia’s nuclear inventory,
according to recent count, consists of 6,240 warheads, more than 500
nuclear powered vessels, 29 power plants, and hundreds of storage sites
for fissionable material which is the major of the problem. These sites
have scientists that usually go without pay for months. The United
States is said to have roughly around 3,000-3,500 warheads, but the US
has roughly 5,000 warheads in reserve. These reserved warheads cause
much tension with our relations with Russia because technically the US
has 8,000 warheads. Under the START I treaty the US spent 1.6
billion dollars to help Russia upgrade its nuclear facilities in hopes of
preventing a catastrophic accident or more illegal seizure of its
fissionable material. Under another pact the US will give Russia 30
million dollars to create jobs in 10 highly secured sites. This pact will
help both countries eliminate 50 tons of plutonium. With the START
II ratified by the Duma(Russian Parliament), which President Boris
Yeltsin said they would soon, it would cut down Russia’s weapons to
roughly 3,000-3,500. US has already ratified and started cutting down
on their nuclear weapons. Also, after that by the year 2007 US and
Russia will start the START III which will cut down the weapons to
roughly 2,000-2,500 weapons apiece.
A lot of treaties have been passed after the Cold War. A lot of
effort has been given by both sides. In the following paragraph I am
going tot talk about the three major treaties. The START(Strategic
Arms Reduction Talks) treaties will ultimately cut down weapons
massively. In 1991 the START process began. After the declared end
of the Cold War some type of treaty had to be set up because both sides
had no need for that many warhead which can get costly and
dangerous. The solution was the START I treaty. In the START I it
says that “US and Russia will reduce the number of strategic nuclear
warheads deployed by the two countries from 13,000-11,000,
respectively, to about 8,000 each” (www.nap.edu). This treaty was a
milestone for both sides at the time. Then at the “US-Russian Summit
in Helsinki, Finland on March 20-21, 1997, yielded dramatic
unexpected results. President Clinton and President Yeltsin agreed to
begin talks on a new round of nuclear arms reduction”(ftp.ucsusa.org).
This new round will be the START III which will be passed by both
countries as soon as the Russian Duma passes START II. START II,
already passed and implemented by the US, was passed in January of
1993. This treaty reduces both sides warheads to 3,500 apiece. Also it
bans the deployment of land-based missiles with more than one
warhead. START III is intended to primarily make it easier for the
Russian Duma to pass START II. START III will deal with strategic
nuclear warhead inventories and the destruction of strategic nuclear
warheads. This treaty would reduce the warheads of both sides to
2,000-2,500 by 2007. More importantly, this new agreement allows
both sides to share data on their total warhead inventories and to verify
that individual warheads have been dismantled. UCS is pushing for the
agreement to be interpreted as covering the fissile materials, plutonium
and highly enriched uranium, coming out of the warheads as well.
Even more, Clinton and Yeltsin agreed to discuss controls on
sea-launched cruise missiles and tactical nuclear weapons, which are
also not covered by existing treaties. Another treaty that has been
passed in 1988 is the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty.
This treaty eliminates and bans all intermediate, ground launched
ballistic and cruise missiles with range from 300 to 3,400 miles. These
treaties help stop the nuclear proliferation but as long as Russia
continues to have its economical problems nuclear proliferation will
always be a problem.
There are three major threats to the US that further the cause of nuclear
proliferation. The first threat is the new way the power is divided up.
The second threat is a broken Russian command. The third, last, and
the biggest threat is the broken army that Russia continues to have.
The first threat is one that can be resolved peacefully. This threat relies
on the action of NATO and the US. This threat comes about because
the push for a new and improved NATO comes at a time when “Russia
relies more than ever on its unstable nuclear forces for its defense”
(Wouters-abc.com). The idea of an enlarged NATO moving into
former Soviet Union clearly poses a threat to Russia. Russian Defense
Minister Igor Rodionov told reporters,” In general I personally think,
and will think, that this is a mistake to expand NATO eastward,” he
further says,” and this problem may actually damage our relationship”
(abcnews.com) It is predicted already that former soviet satellites
Czech
Republic, Hungary, and Poland will get an invite to join NATO in the
summer of 1999. Russia will be outraged because with this new and
enlarged NATO Russia’s failure as an enduring superpower will be
over. Further, despite the end of the Cold War, US hasn’t relaxed on
nuclear tension with Russia. At a moment’s notice we can wreak
havoc on Russia unleashing 3,000 nuclear warheads, but also
remember Russia can do the same to us. You are probably thinking ,”
How about the detargeting agreement of 1994?” Well the agreement
actually gives us ten seconds to say our prayers. This is because ‘just
because we detargeted the nukes the coordinates can be brought up
with a push of a button or two.” (Wouters-abcnews.com)
The second threat is a broken command. Russia is
currently a very unstable nation. At any point one of Yeltsin’s
commanders can just start nuclear havoc. In 1991 a plan against
Mikhail Gorbachev stripped him of his nuclear command and
transferred it to his prime minister Boris Yeltsin. If just one of the
three commanders had not disobeyed Yeltsin’s orders then there would
be one nation torn apart by two hostile and nuclear factions. Further
down the command and unsanctioned launch can happen at a
moment’s notice. Russia’s nuclear forces suffer from shortages of
money, supplies, housing, and trained personnel. Some nuclear troops
have threatened to unleash nuclear destruction among the world if they
do not get paid and some sort of housing. Like the Americans,
Russians have locks on their missiles that prevent them from launch
but due to severe lack of money and supplies several of these locks
break down and instead of fixing the troops just shut them down.
“There have been signs of insubordination found in some nuclear units
that raises the question what steps they might take to express their
unhappiness” (Wouters-abcnews.com). These people in desperation
can just sell some warheads in the notorious black markets. These
Russian officials go months without pay and they might sell a nuke just
to keep food on the table.
The third and biggest threat is Russia’s broken army. Russia
lacks supplies, money, and housing to take care of their huge army.
Lately, they have been cutting down troops but yet it is not enough. In
Moscow it is common to see once proud veterans of the old Red Army
begging on the streets for some food and living in tents on street
corners. Even the best of the Russian military, The Strategic Rocket
Forces, is not immune from this economical plague. Retired General
Lev Rokhlin said,” The army is being destroyed in a catastrophic,
snowball fashion”(abcnews.com). Defense Minister Rodionov said,”
the underfunded military could conceivably lose control over a nuclear
arsenal”(abcnews.com). This is one of the most serious problems to
nuclear proliferation.
According to recent inspections-Iraq, North Korea, Iran, Libya,
Cuba, India, and Pakistan have some type of nuclear capability. Many
of these countries are not part of the 1968 Nuclear Non proliferation
Treaty, so they are part of the proliferation problem. The Indian army’s
chief of staff said, “Don’t fight the United States unless you have
nuclear weapons”(abcnews.com). Russia has already sold nuclear
reactors to Iran, India, and Cuba. Iran has signed the treaty but the
other two have not which make the other powers uneasy. Iraq started
their nuclear program right after they invaded Kuwait. By the time the
Persian Gulf War began they were several weeks away from building
their own bomb. The Iraqis learned about bomb making equipment
from several other countries and got uranium from French and Russian
supplied reactors. At the end of the war the inspectors found the rods
and saw the ends were sawed off. This means that the Iraqis were
taking bomb grade fuel from the rods. North Korea is already said to
have one or tow bombs. Secretary of Defense William Perry said, “to
ignore the existing weaponry, and only take action if North Korea
develops a significant nuclear weapons capability.” North Korea has
promised to freeze their program but has since invested in a
ballistic-missile production program. Iran is five years away from
building nuclear weapons. Iran argues they have the right to harness
nuclear energy for good, but US doubts this because of the huge
amounts of people training as nuclear specialists and the huge amounts
of oil reserves. Libya’s, with Muammar Gadhafi in power, likelihood
that it will obtain bomb grade uranium or plutonium is slim but they
have shown capability of buying, building, and launching missiles.
Cuba is only involved ith this picture because they ar eplanning with
the Russians to build a reactor in Cuba. Pakistan my be the most
advanced country. American spies reported the sale of 5,000 ring
magnets (used to enrich uranium for the manufacturer of nuclear
bombs)to Pakistan from China. US protested but China continued.
Pakistani government has agreed not to build any more nuclear
bombs-its siting on 10 or 15 weapons- in return for the delivery of 38
US F-16 fighter jets which has concerns for what they might use these
jets for. India is going to make a deal with Russia for 2 billion dollars
in return for two nuclear reactors that they will probably use to make
bombs. Most proliferation of nuclear weapons occur in these
countries. It is also big in eastern Europe with the old soviet satellites
and Latin America also wants to join in this elite club.
A lot has been done on the proliferation of nuclear materials.
We have issued the START treaties and the INF treaty to limit the
weapons themselves and the spread of them. We have given Russia
million in aid to resolve this problem. Russia itself has tried hard to get
themselves out of this economical slump and emerge again as a
superpower, but as long as Russia is so vast and costly they will
continue to be in this slump for much more time to come. This slump
is the major and most deadly cause for nuclear proliferation. As long
as Russia continues to be in this slump nuclear proliferation will
always be a problem. So to conclude my essay and the question is that
the status of nuclear weapons right now looks very bleak.
Bibliography
Achieving Deeper Reductions in Nuclear Arsenals.[Online]Available http://ftp.uscusa.org
Einhorn, Robert J. The Nuclear Roundtable.[Online]Available
http://www.stimson.org/rd-table/jul97-ru.htm, October 4, 1998
Paddock, Richard C.. Russia’s nukes: Fear proliferates.[Online]Available
http://www2.thestar.com, October 8, 1998
The Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy-Summary.[Online]Available
http://www.nap.edu/readingroom/books/fun/summary.html, October 14, 1998
Wouters, Jorgen. Nuclear Proliferation.[Online]Available
http://www.abcnews.com/world
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